If you have questions about where the real estate market is heading, or what happened in 2020 then this blog may be the answer to all your questions. This blog will also include what the mortgage industry is forecasting, and why, for 2021. The original reports from TRREB, OMDREB and RAHB are rather lengthly therefore, I have condensed the reports into an easier and more timely read. If you still have questions on the market as relates to the GTA, Oakville, Milton or Burlington, I am only a call/email away. Here we go:
BURLINGTON JANUARY RESULTS
As people continue to work from home, bigger homes are needed to incorporate home offices. Prices in the suburbs are less than in the big City of Toronto so areas such as Burlington have seen a spike in home sales and also, multiple offers. Sales activity reported through RAHB saw a 31% increase in January of 2021 from the same period of 2020. New listings however saw a decrease of 20% with a level of active listings at the end of the month of only 134 homes. Here comes the average selling price - up by 18% o $982,519 for all home types. For your full report, please click here.
BURLINGTON 2020 IN REVIEW
"After a slight slowdown in March and Arpil, the RAHB real estate market rebounded with abundance, creating record breaking numbers throughout 2020," says RAHB's 2021 President Donna Bacher. This of course, is based on the entire region of Hamilton and Burlington. When you take a look at the Burlington market, you see that there was a 6% increase in the sales activity of 2020 when compared to 2019. The number of new listings decreased by 4%. Hence me sounding like a broken record with respect to supply vs demand. For your Burlington Year In Review, please click here.
OAKVILLE & MILTON JANUARY RESULTS
The report coming from OMDREB (Oakville & Milton District Real Estate Board) shows that property sales went up by 41 units however new listings saw a decrease of 86 units in January 2021 when compared to 2020. Because of the supply vs demand scenario the average sale price is up by 67.4% in Oakville and in Milton, up 33.1%. "The lack of inventory in our market is also largely impacting the average sale price, which is something that will need to be addressed in the future. It is important to note that in Oakville specifically, there were some specific high-priced listings that sold which drove up the figures drastically to over 67%." stated OMDREB President Lynn Hoffman. For your Oakville and Milton January report please click here.
TORONTO REGIONAL REAL ESTATE BOARD
YEAR IN REVIEW & 2021 FORECAST
This report has been condensed yet may still be a little long to read. It's well worth it though. Ipsos supplied the survey results. Jason Mercer, Chief Market Analysist of TRREB, and Paul Taylor, President & CEO of Mortgage Professionals Canada were among those who presented their findings and analysis, and those are featured in this blog. Again, here we go:
2021 MARKET OUTLOOK:
In November/December 2020 Ispos polled GTA conumser on their home buying intentions in 2021. While COVID-19 presented a period of uncertainty, the pandemic does not appear to have dampened home buying intentions. The latest survey results suggested that home buying intentions for 2021 will remain strong from a historic perspective.
Here are the key points summarizing TRREB's housing market outlook over the next year:
- Combined home sales reported through TRREB's MLS® system for the GTA, south Simcoe County and Orangeville are expected to range between 100,0000 and 110,000 transactions in 2021, with a point forecast of 105,000 transactions.
- The pace of new condo apartment listings will start to ebb, especially in the second half of 2021. With single family listings remaining constrained, expect total new listings to range between 155,000 and 165,000, with a point forecast of 160,000.
- The overall average selling price for all home types and areas combined will eclipse the $1,000,000 mark for the first time on a calendar year basis. TRREB's forecast is $1,025,000, representing a year-over-year increase of 10%.
MORTGAGE MARKET TRENDS
- Similar to survey results from previous years, approximately 80% of likely home buyers will use a mortgage in the purchase of their new home.
- The most common down payment percentage range was 20% to 24.9%, also consisent with survey results from recent years.
- The most common source of down payments were savings outside of a RRSP (36%) and equity in a current home (26%).
- For first-time buyers, there was also a greater reliance on other sources, including savings within an RRSP and/or gifts from family or friends
- Very low borrowing costs will be sustained throughout 2021 to support continued economic recovery. Because of this, negotiated mortgage rates will remain low throughout the year as well.
In conclusion, the key challenge to the housing market over the next year and beyond will be a familiar one - Lack of supply. Policymakers, at all levels of government have acknowledged the need for a greater supply of housing and a greater diversity of housing types.
Here's what Jason Mercer, TRREB's Chief Market has to say:
Thank you for your time. I hope you have found this blog informative. Should you wish more information, please give me a call or reach out to me through email. Both are found on my website www.marilynpalmer.com